In 2009, National Grid and Ernst & Young published a report on "The Potential for Renewable Gas in the UK", which claimed that by 2020, biomethane should make up at least 5% of our gas supplies, and could be 18% at a stretch (nearly 50% of domestic gas). In the event, biomethane makes up 0.7% of UK gas supplies in 2020. The projections were absurd, and obviously motivated by commercial interest, yet they were widely cited, including by government, and influenced policy. We explore in this report the evidence that the projections were not credible at the time, and the impact of this successful rent-seeking effort.
Bruno Prior
11/12/2019
Labour's energy and climate-change proposals in their 2019 manifesto are vastly more expensive than they recognise - probably £1bn by 2030 and £1.5-2bn ASAP in the 2030s.
This spending would reduce carbon emissions by less than 50% by 2030. One unintended consequence is that, despite so much infrastructure spending, electricity supply would occasionally be insufficient to meet the radically increased demand.
Bruno Prior
30/11/2019
All parties are promising to reduce energy demand in buildings. The standard improvements are surprisingly limited (cavity wall insulation saves 7%, loft insulation saves 4%) and 2/3 of the properties are done already. Major improvement requires rebuilding. But at our current rate of demolition/conversion, it takes 22 years to replace 1% of the housing stock.
Bruno Prior
15/03/2017
Efforts to encourage renewable electricity and renewable transport do not have much effect on the overall levels of renewable energy. It is the levels of renewable heat that most strongly influence the overall delivery of renewable energy.