3. Electrification

3.1 Introduction

1. Let’s illustrate how the model functions by running a scenario that is intended to approximate to a model of decarbonisation through electrification along the lines commonly advocated to government.
2. Current policy pronouncements are focused on 2030, so let’s try modelling how the UK’s energy systems might look around then, accepting optimistic assumptions about the scale of delivery achievable. We could try modelling the 2050 final destination, but a lot can happen in 30 years, and it will be easier to understand the outputs from such a distant scenario having seen the shape of a mid-point scenario, and then examined the effects of changing some variables.